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Top 25 Microsoft Articles on Substack

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Doing Stuff with AI: Opinionated Midyear Edition

AI systems have gotten more capable and easier to use
Every six months or so, I write a guide to doing stuff with AI. A lot has changed since the last guide, while a few important things have stayed the same. It is time for an update. This is usually a serious endeavor, but, heeding the advice of Allie Miller
Ethan Mollick ∙ 340 LIKES
Kevin James O’Brien
I appreciate your posts. And look forward to playing with these projects this summer.
This spring I had to pivot as a high school English teacher trying to pitch the value of poetry to students. I was seeing writing with what I suspected had AI help to say the least, so I asked my students to write with integrity as they experimented with ChatGPT and poetry - asking big questions as to role of the poet in an AI world.
They had to credit AI where credit was due - indicating AI writing in bold font - as they wrote poems and reflections on…
Why write poetry?
Does poetry matter?
What’s the point if large language models can generate sonnets and sestinas in seconds?
They read various Ars Poeticas by poets and wrote their own. They researched and presented more than 90 poets and cross checked with ChatGPT. This fact checking is essential as AI churns out words, words, words - some true, yet some false. Discernment is an essential skill. They concluded that writers write with an authentic voice that reflected their lived experience - and context is everything: historical, biographical, political, and social.
Echoing Ross Gay, writing serves as an “evident artifact” to thinking, to struggling,
to investigating, to enduring,
to living - and to inspiring
by sharing with the world.
As educators, we will have to ask big questions as we rethink teaching and learning with this technology.
We must consider our students and their future as they develop their respective relationship with writing and reading.
Right now, more questions than answers.
And as Rilke writes:
“I want to beg you, as much as I can, dear sir, to be patient toward all that is unsolved in your heart and to try to love the questions themselves like locked rooms and like books that are written in a very foreign tongue. Do not now seek the answers, which cannot be given you because you would not be able to live them. And the point is, to live everything. Live the questions now. Perhaps you will then gradually, without noticing it, live along some distant day into the answer.”
“Writing is the evident artifact of some kind of change.” - Ross Gay
From slow stories podcast.
Daniel Nest
I especially love some of the "fun" use cases. A great way to dip your toe into working with AI while having fun in the process.

Economic Termites Are Everywhere

Why is this economy so difficult to manage? The macro statistics are hiding the experience of being cheated.
Today I want to start with a comment by a colleague, Texas antitrust lawyer Basel Musharbash, observing a restaurant trying to do a renovation in Dallas. “Something funky is happening in the building materials supply chain,” he wrote . “A 3,000 sq. ft. commercial space in a strip mall shouldn’t cost $720,000 to renovate into an Italian food joint.” He’s…
Matt Stoller ∙ 377 LIKES
Ed Nuhfer
"Executives will get worried about being sued."
Executives need to be worried about doing prison before this will stop. So do politicians. The laizzez faire attitude "Everybody does it..." needs to be replaced by "Everybody does time..." who gets caught.
Michael Guerin
Amazon Web Services is the biggest termite of them all. It's the fixed cost of almost everything that runs on the internet.

The Wild World of Edtech Certifications: Establishing Proof of Impact

And more on upcoming events, Khan Academy and Microsoft, 2U, Common Sense Media AI Research, and Pearson AI Research.
🚨 Follow us on LinkedIn to be the first to know about new events and content! 🚨 The Wild World of Edtech Certifications: Establishing Proof of Impact By Natalia I. Kucirkova and Pati Ruiz Natalia I. K…
Sarah Morin, Alex Sarlin, and Ben Kornell ∙ 7 LIKES

How Apple, Google, and Microsoft Can Help Parents Protect Children

The case for device-based age verification
Introduction from Jon Haidt: Ravi Iyer first contacted me in 2007 to ask if he could take a questionnaire I had developed (the Moral Foundations Questionnaire) and put it online. Ravi was a graduate student in social psychology at the University of Southern California at the time, and he quickly became a close research collaborator and friend. He created the website
Ravi Iyer ∙ 88 LIKES
Iris
To be honest, I would like to have something like that on my device for ME (adult) as well. So I don’t get bothered by trolls and don’t see content I didn’t ask for pushed in my face regularly :)
Chris McKenna
Thank you, Ravi. Device (operating system)-level verification is the least-restrictive means. Apple and Google hold the keys to child protection, they know millions of kids have their devices, and they have failed in their responsibilities. It's tough at the state level due to interstate commerce constraints, but in partnership with NCOSE, we co-authored SB104 in Utah, the country's first device-level bill: https://le.utah.gov/~2024/bills/static/SB0104.html.

EP115: Life is Short, Use Dev Tools

This week’s system design refresher: KISS, SOLID, CAP, BASE: Important Terms You Might Not Know! (Youtube video) Life is Short, Use Dev Tools 10 Essential Components of a Production Web Application How to load your websites at lightning speed Top 8 Standards Every Developer Should Know
ByteByteGo ∙ 135 LIKES
Abelista
For Dev Tools, I am surprised there weren't any mentioned for User Stories and iterations. (Pivotal Tracker)


What I Read This Week…

GameStop stock triples after meme is posted on X, groundbreaking clinical trial leads to restored hearing in five deaf children, and elite universities have become bastions of progressive ideology.
Watch All-In E182 Read our Creator Economy Deep Dive Caught My Eye… After a three-year hiatus since the 2021 GameStop short squeeze, Keith Gill, also known as RoaringKitty, posted a meme on X that caused GameStop’s stock to triple. This has sparked debate over
Chamath Palihapitiya ∙ 49 LIKES
Ben Alexander
No one moans about privilege more than the privileged


What Apple's AI Tells Us: Experimental Models⁴

Siri versus the machine god?
I wanted to give some quick thoughts on the Apple AI (sorry, “Apple Intelligence”) release. I haven’t used it myself, and we don’t know everything about their approach, but I think the release highlights something important happening in AI right now: experimentation with four kinds of models - AI models, models of use, business models, and mental models…
Ethan Mollick ∙ 108 LIKES
Chris Barlow
When life gives you llms, make llmonade.
Rob Nelson
What a perfect summary of where we are: "the mere idea of AGI being possible soon bends everything around it." The question is how long will that continue when AGI is always 2-10 years away.
Self-driving cars, human cloning, and MOOCs were hyped, but they never had the initial success and huge investments of LLMs. I don't think there is a useful historical precedent for AGI.

Can Cricket Recolonize America?

Benjamin Franklin and Abraham Lincoln were fans. As an Englishman in the U.S., I’m rooting for a revival.
Tomorrow, New York’s Long Island suburbs will host a game expected to be viewed by twice as many people as the Super Bo…
Oliver Wiseman ∙ 373 LIKES
Bober
I learned something new today, and it's early. It's going to be a good day. Thank you Oliver and Bari.
BTW, I wonder what the initial reaction of the Japanese public was when baseball was introduced. Whatever it was, they are bigger fans than we are now.
Paul
Nice feature story, Oliver. Nothing wrong with a nice feature story from time to time!


Jun 10

Xbox focuses on impressive games, not the elephants in the room

Impressions of Microsoft's 2024 gaming showcase. Plus: An interview with the makers of Call of Duty Black Ops 6
The reveal of a new Gears of War prequel got the loudest cheers in a theater in Los Angeles today, as Microsoft showed off the near year or so’s worth of big games coming from its studios and partners. Other notable crowd reactions: “Yeah, Xbox!” after a trailer for A44’s action game
Stephen Totilo ∙ 22 LIKES
manifest
New record for most number of games from a single showcase added to the must-play list -- including Mixtape and South of Midnight.
Isn't that Troy Baker as the voice of Indy ... astonishing replication of Harrison's timbre and mannerisms. Same exact punching sounds from the films, too.


👔 Big 4 Visualized

These giants audit most public companies
Welcome to the Friday edition of How They Make Money. Over 120,000 subscribers turn to us for business and investment insights. In case you missed it: 📊 Earnings Visuals (5/2024) 🏝️ Online Travel: AI is Coming 🤖 NVIDIA: Industrial Revolution 💰 Hedge Funds' Top Picks in Q1
App Economy Insights ∙ 31 LIKES
Francine McKenna
Hi, quick question. Why do you say PwC audited FTX? Not true unless you know something no one else knows.

Google's budget smartphone is great

Plus, my new favorite Android earbuds.
Thanks for taking a look at my newsletter! Let’s get to it! I took this picture on the $500 Pixel 8a, which I highly recommend if you want a capable yet relatively inexpensive smartphone. It’s Google’s budget phone packed with a capable camera and some of the cleanest, smartest Android software.
25 LIKES

Mistral Codestral is the Newest AI Model in the Code Generation Race

Plus updates from Elon Musk's xAI , several major funding rounds and intriguing research publications.
Next Week in The Sequence: Mistral Codestral is the New Model for Code Generation Edge 401: We dive into reflection and refimenent planning for agents. Review the famous Reflextion paper and the AgentVerse framework for multi-agent task planning. Edge 402:
Jesus Rodriguez ∙ 11 LIKES

What happened in marketing: IG’s Reels Gift, YouTube Posts & Consumer Confidence 🌵

A lot happened, I mean it: IG’s best updates yet, Pinterest & Snap ads, new retail and airline media launches: 🧃 is ready!
Was there a feature shipping race this week? It felt like it 🏃 , hope you don’t skip any update you or your team should know. Before you go further, Attention is like money–you can waste it or invest it. If you invest it in my paid newsletter, you'll get dividends for years.
Jaskaran ∙ 5 LIKES

📈 Nvidia-a-a-a-a-a-a

Boom or bubble?
Nvidia burst through the $3 trillion barrier yesterday. The chipmaker’s stock is responsible for a third of the gain in the S&P 500 market this year. It is worth more than Apple, but looking at fundamentals, it is treated very differently. Apple has more than 7 times the revenues and about 4 times the profits of Nvidia. Apple of course is not growing. In…
Azeem Azhar ∙ 41 LIKES
Eddie Short
The time to buy NVDA was 12-24 months ago. The valuation is totally unsustainable and this has massive bubble written all over it
blaine wishart
Buy Nvidia? Depends on what is already in your portfolio. However, consider: Huang has understood 21 Century computing for at least 30 years. He is getting physical because he understands that the Word was not the beginning. He will go after the edge and robotics. He is rethinking the datacenter and the laptop, Others will make some progress, but it will be on the margins. He knows his business is not selling chips to LM vendors. LMs delight me to no end, but they are a tiny step. Nvidia knows that so, repeating myself for emphasis. Physical. Robots. Edge. AI factories.


EP113: AWS Services Cheat Sheet

This week’s system design refresher: Do You Know How Mobile Apps Are Released? (Youtube video) AWS Services Cheat Sheet A cheat sheet for API designs Azure Services Cheat Sheet How do computer programs run? SPONSOR US
ByteByteGo ∙ 161 LIKES
lxz
Hello blogger, what software are these animations made with? I'm looking forward to your answer, thank you.
Mark Neumann
Great diagram, but missing a few key services that show up on my bill
API Gateway
Glacier
Simple Email Service
CloudWatch
CloudTrail

IoT (No longer Used)
WorkSpaces

How to improve your voluntary churn

6 practical tactics for your subscription business.
Sponsored by Churnkey: Churnkey helps subscription companies like Jasper, Veed.io, and Copy.ai, to drastically reduce voluntary and involuntary churn. On average, Churnkey saves companies 20%-40% of subscription revenue that would otherwise be lost to churn.
36 LIKES
Aakash Gupta
Fascinating insight on early v late cancellations, and excellent piece!
Thanks so much for the shout-out, as well.
Mahdis Atabaki
That was great thanks!

Hype season for video games has changed since E3 ended

But maybe not in the ways you'd think.
They say E3 is dead, but you might not realize that if you looked at my work calendar for the coming week. I will… Fly to LA on Thursday. Attend game showcases on Friday. Game demos and interviews on Saturday and Sunday (plus another showcase), and then do that again on Monday.
Stephen Totilo ∙ 21 LIKES
James Francis
Was that 2004 Nintendo announcement where Shigeru Miyamoto lept on stage with Link's sword and shield? I saw people at the front literally cry during the announcement. I lost a lot of respect for gaming journalism that day.
This was a nice look at the E3 era - thank you!

Leopold Aschenbrenner - China/US Super Intelligence Race, 2027 AGI, & The Return of History

The trillion dollar cluster...
Chatted with my friend Leopold Aschenbrenner about the trillion dollar cluster, unhobblings + scaling = 2027 AGI, CCP espionage at AI labs, leaving OpenAI and starting an AGI investment firm, dangers of outsourcing clusters to the Middle East, & The Project.
Dwarkesh Patel ∙ 26 LIKES
Nathan Lambert
Honestly this feels like he (and other intelligence explosion people) has a huge blind spot. The exponential is *one way* AGI *could* happen but it requires the log linear graph to continue without interruption.
With this logic, we would’ve already had “the big earthquake” a few times. There’s nothing assuring scaling to keep working, it’s one narrow path. Feels sort of like smart people have been brainwashed to believe this.
It’s a good thought experiment, but it’s certainly not proven reality.
Oliver
I didn't get the whole way through the interview, but I'm very skeptical of Leopold's views.
> Six months ago, 10 GW was the talk of the town. Now, people have moved on. 10 GW is happening. There’s The Information report on OpenAI and Microsoft planning a $100 billion cluster.
This sounds very miscalibrated for two reasons.
1) Datacenters and power plants are very complicated pieces of infrastructure. You need various kinds state approval and geological surveys and civil engineering contractors and so on, which mean you need a full time operations team running for several years. At the scale we're talking about, you start needing to buy first-of-a-kind power plant hardware that has to first be custom engineered. Even the ~$100mm datacenters at my workplace require a full time team and take years to build out. (Also re: the later point that you can buy up power-hungry aluminium smelters in structural decline, I agree, except by a sort of efficient markets argument, why hasn't this already been done for previous datacenters? What changes now? I feel like there's a Chesterton's fence here.)
2) Reading a report from The Information about $100bn of capex and taking it at face value is very questionable. That's multiple times Microsoft's annual capex budget; if they do spend that much there will be signs of it that Wall St analysts will start seeing many months in advance.
> For the average knowledge worker, it’s a few hours of productivity a month. You have to be expecting pretty lame AI progress to not hit a few hours of productivity a month.
I think very few knowledge workers would pay $100/mo not just because it's a huge amount, but because of differentiated pricing: the marginal value of the $100 model isn't enough above the $10 model for most individuals to justify.
That said I think if these models get good enough we will see a lot of enterprise / site licenses for LLMs that could go up to this price, because an employer is willing to pay more for worker productivity than workers. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of the more valuable contracts go to wrapper LLMs run by LexisNexis and Elsevier affiliates and the likes, because competition can commoditise LLMs leaving the producer surplus flowing to the IP owners.
But taking a step back, it feels weird to me to assume that you'd raise copilot prices to fund $100bn in capex. If you need $100bn that bad just save it up or sell some bonds or take a GPU-secured loan from a consortium of banks; there is no principled reason to risk losing the copilot market by raising prices too early.
> The question is, when does the CCP and when does the American national security establishment realize that superintelligence is going to be absolutely decisive for national power? This is where the intelligence explosion stuff comes in, which we should talk about later.
Neither establishment is asleep at the wheel in this particular case. Obama called "Superintelligence" by Bostrom one of his favourite books 10 years ago, and with the amount Americans have been publicly fearmongering about Chinese LLMs you can bet it's a common conversation topic in Beijing. Rather I think the apparent lack of action is just because nobody is quite sure what to do with this situation, as it's so hard to forecast. What concretely would you have politicians do? Disclaimer: I know very little about China, but I have studied Chinese history and live in Hong Kong.
> There are reports, I think Microsoft. We'll get into it.
The press release linked to on the word "reports" discusses G42, which as far as I can tell is using Azure cloud compute, and which as far as I can tell is an "AI" consulting company. I could be wrong though - the chair of G42 is famously the UAE's top spy, and I don't know what to make of that. But I worked for an LLM research lab in SF for a while, so I think my BS radar is reasonably well calibrated.
> My primary argument is that if you’re at the point where this thing has vastly superhuman capabilities — it can develop crazy bioweapons targeted to kill everyone but the Han Chinese, it can wipe out entire countries, it can build robo armies and drone swarms with mosquito-sized drones — the US national security state will be intimately involved.
What the actual #$%(&?
I realise these are just hypotheticals, but the fact that CCP ethnic bioweapons are a salient idea indicates to me that Leopold should read a book or two about Chinese history. Of course I can't prove that nobody in Beijing wants this, but it conflicts so sharply with my understanding of the PRC state that I can't help but call BS.

🤖 NVIDIA: Industrial Revolution

AI factories are reshaping the future of computing
Welcome to the Friday edition of How They Make Money. Over 100,000 subscribers turn to us for business and investment insights. In case you missed it: ♾ Meta: The Anti-Apple 💊 Pharma Titans Visualized 📊 Earnings Visuals (4/2024) 💰 Hedge Funds' Top Picks in Q1
App Economy Insights ∙ 71 LIKES
Aidan M. Newkirk
I’m curious to know how you gain your information 🤔

Privacy Disasters: Microsoft, Just Because You Can

... Doesn't mean you should. Here's why.
Update: Kevin Beaumont on his Double Pulsar blog, added some very useful additional context on how Recall works at a technical level, and the information security implications of Microsoft’s approach. I discussed many of the problems he identified (non-optionality, exploitability by adversaries like hackers/governments, the fact that there’s no filtering of … anything). What I did not know was that in addition to recording everything you do on your machine as an OCR’d screenshot, it is
Carey Lening ∙ 3 LIKES