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OpenAI: Exodus

Previously: OpenAI: Facts From a Weekend, OpenAI: The Battle of the Board, OpenAI: Leaks Confirm the Story, OpenAI: Altman Returns, OpenAI: The Board Expands. Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike have left OpenAI. This is almost exactly six months after Altman’s temporary firing and The Battle of the Board, the day after the release of GPT-4o, and soon after a n…
Zvi Mowshowitz ∙ 55 LIKES
kajota
This is one of the closest matches for the catch-22 in the novel Catch-22 that I've ever seen:
"If you were truly worried about this you would blow up your life and savings, in this way that I say would make sense, despite all explanations why it doesn’t.
You didn’t.
So clearly you are not worried.
Nothing to worry about.
You did.
So clearly you are an idiot.
Nothing to worry about."
Also, at this point, I'm fairly certain Sam Altman is a sociopath. If I were an AI doomer, this would really scare me.
Kevin
The equity clawback is not totally unheard of. Skype and Zynga and others have “played hardball” with equity contracts. It’s disappointing from an employee point of view though.
One important note is the whole nonprofit PPU structure already is much more controlled by the company than most cases. You don’t just exit at an IPO or acquisition, you are relying on future cooperation by OpenAI. If they want to play hardball with these contracts in the future, to make them less valuable to ex-employees, they will have many more opportunities to do so.
It does all seem like one thing. OpenAI has almost been torn apart by the struggles between the doomer faction and the product faction. Now the product faction seems to have won the struggle and is consolidating its political control.

The OpenAI board was right

Even on little things, Sam is not consistently candid.
A week ago, OpenAI released an exciting new demo, featuring a voice character with a sexy breathy voice that was supposed to remind you of Scarlett Johansson’s AI agent character in the fabulous film Her. Lots of people gushed over it. (Some worried about the sexism, as well they should, but that’s a story for another day. And of course I daresay the de…
Gary Marcus ∙ 151 LIKES
Birgitte Rasine
LinkedIn is alight with the ScarJo bombshell.
"No" means no, Sam. Be it in English, or every other language on the planet.
sean pan
And these are the people who promise that they will give us a perfect world with UBI.
This is why we need to discuss what they are really doing and #PauseAI.

OpenAI chases Her

ChatGPT left the textbox and where AI is leading society.
Tom and I recorded an episode of The Retort on OpenAI’s culture shift with this announcement — it’ll be out Friday. Subscribe if that sounds interesting!
Nathan Lambert ∙ 31 LIKES

John Schulman (OpenAI Cofounder) - Reasoning, RLHF, & Plan for 2027 AGI

how posttraining tames the shoggoth, and the nature of the progress to come...
Chatted with John Schulman (cofounder of OpenAI and led ChatGPT creation) how posttraining tames the shoggoth, and the nature of the progress to come... Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript
Dwarkesh Patel ∙ 17 LIKES
Colin Brown
Thanks Dwarkesh really appreciate this. Although I am beginning to feel a real "law of diminishing returns" on the topic of when will AGI arrive and what will we do so it would be great if future podcasts didn't dwell too much on this area. I don't think anyone can give a thorough answer at this stage so it feels like we just need to "feel our way towards it".
I enjoyed the bits when you guys talked about models, pre and post training. Less from a "moat" perspective and more in terms of what is possible / what will change / how these approaches will develop. Keep up the good work
Liberty
I enjoyed the interview, good stuff 👍

What I Read This Week...

Fake studies have flooded academic journals, TV advertising is in secular decline, and OpenAI loses key team members over 'superintelligent' AI safeguarding
Watch All-In E179 Read our 2023 Annual Letter Caught My Eye… Fake studies have flooded the publishers of top scientific journals, leading to thousands of retractions and millions of dollars in lost revenue. Where do these studies come from? Scientists are paying 'paper mills’ hundreds and even thousands of dollars to list fabricated papers in scientific j…
Chamath Palihapitiya ∙ 59 LIKES

Chaos and tension at OpenAI

Safety seems to be taking a back seat
74 LIKES
Aaron Turner
So many questions! (A) Should the public be worried? -- The public should be worried (in particular) about any AI system that is deployed at scale, so whatever the major AI labs such as OpenAI are doing should be top of this list. All contemporary AI (including the major LLMs such as ChatGPT) is at best only minimally aligned with human values. BY DEFINITION, a minimally-aligned AI system will inexorably inflict societal harm (in parallel with any benefits) when deployed. Therefore a minimally-aligned AI system that is deployed at global scale (such as ChatGPT) will necessarily inflict societal harm at global scale (although it's difficult to predict in advance exactly what form that harm will take, we will doubtless gradually find out over the next 10-20 years). The only good news in this regard is that contemporary LLMs are simply too dumb by themselves to represent a significant x-risk. (B) Will the (new) board at OpenAI take note? -- Internally, for sure; these are not stupid people. (C) Will they do anything to address the situation? -- Only if they perceive it to be a problem relative to their (highly rationalised) objectives. It may take external pressure, such as robust legislation, to significantly temper their (and thus the company's) behaviour (ditto re the other AI labs of course). (D) Will OpenAI’s status as a nonprofit remain in good standing? -- In my assessment, OpenAI is already firmly under the control of profit-motivated interests. It's entirely possible however that key people within the company, even board members, have not quite worked this out yet. (E) Will [this] help Elon Musk’s case? -- Quite possibly. (F) Does Sam care? -- I believe he cares deeply. I also believe HE believes he's doing the right thing, which (when Kool-Aid is involved) is not necessarily the same thing as actually doing the right thing. (G) Is this what he wanted? -- I suspect not, but HE needs to work this out (ditto re the rest of the board). (H) Is OpenAI’s push to commercialization coming at the expense of AI safety? -- 10,000%.
Joy in HK
One has to look long and hard with a magnifying glass to find examples of a profitable business willing to offset revenue for safety concerns. Ford Pinto, anyone?

OpenAI Wants To Get Big Fast, And Four More Takeaways From a Wild Week in AI News

Ignore the flirty bot, OpenAI’s big strategic play became clearer this week.
In a season of big AI news, few weeks have felt more significant than this one. OpenAI introduced its new GPT-4o model, Google unveiled a deeper AI vision, and Apple dropped more hints ahead of a massive AI-themed WWDC event. At Big Technology, we also hosted our first public event with Box CEO Aaron Levie, well-timed with the AI news. Our live podcast s…
Alex Kantrowitz ∙ 39 LIKES
Afonso Salcedo (Fonzie)
I’m personally really excited to see where this potential OpenAI/Apple partnership will lead us.
D R
I wouldn’t read too much into Satya Nadella not appearing at the OpenAI event. Sam Altman didn’t appear either so this was positioned as a smaller event than the DevDay one. Also, with Mustafa Suleyman being hired to lead the consumer-focused Microsoft AI unit, I suspect we will see him more at OpenAI stuff. Completely agree it was a big week for GenAI and Microsoft Build is on the 21st so more to come.


🔮 The race to AI assistants; OpenAI exodus; GLP-1, risky films, insect protein ++ #474

An insider perspective on AI and exponential technologies
Hi, I’m Azeem Azhar. In this week’s edition, we explore Google and OpenAI product announcements and evaluate if they live up to the companies’ substantial investments. In the rest of today’s issue: Need to know: OpenAI loses the yin to its yang The latest departures at OpenAI could deepen a monoculture at the leading AI company.
Azeem Azhar and Nathan Warren ∙ 36 LIKES
Paola Bonomo
You quote Martin Wolf's review of Andrew Scott's latest book, The Longevity Imperative. I don't think I'm going to pick up the book because, even if the numbers are updated, the message appears to be pretty much the same as in the 2016 book he co-wrote with Lynda Gratton, The 100-Year Life (https://www.100yearlife.com/). Or is there something new that I'm missing?

The Future of AI in Education: Google and OpenAI Strategies Unveiled

GPT-4o, Gemini integration with Google for Education, LearnLM, an exclusive interview with Shantanu Sinha, and more!
🚨 Follow us on LinkedIn to be the first to know about new events and content! 🚨 The Future of AI in Education: Google and OpenAI Strategies Unveiled By Ben Kornell
Sarah Morin, Alex Sarlin, and Ben Kornell ∙ 9 LIKES

i'm obsessed with the fully conscious baby

+ ScarJo says ScarNO to OpenAI, and police have opened a probe into Matthew Perry's death
Um first of all HI to our 55 new paid supporters!!!! I’m so obsessed with you and adore having you over on Close Friends and in the book club chats!!!! If you wanna join the cutest fucking community on the internet, I’m still running a sexy 50% off sale because the cost of living sux 𓆩♡𓆪
shit you should care about ∙ 28 LIKES
Kiana
red sauce and tomato sauce are the same but ketchup's different

OpenAI Stole Scarlett Johansson's Voice for GPT-4o

A Sam Altman gimmick/obsession gone terribly wrong.
Hello Everyone, This is an Op-Ed about OpenAI, the state of the internet and technological loneliness. The lengths Generative AI startups are going to is not a healthy sign for the future of the internet. Scarlett Johansson says that OpenAI asked her to be the voice behind ChatGPT — but that when she declined, the company went ahead and created a voice …
Michael Spencer ∙ 12 LIKES
Tobias Mark Jensen
Well-said.
The problem with guys like Sam Altman is that they always think the answer is more technology, no matter what the question is. However, there comes a tipping point, as I see it, where more automation does more harm than good and this is the point we are at now

OpenAI GPT-4o: The New Best AI Model in the World. Like in the Movies. For Free

Everything you need to know (so far)
A blog about AI that’s actually about people OpenAI has delivered. In just a brief 25-minute live event they’ve changed the landscape completely. Here’s the image that best reflects why:
Alberto Romero ∙ 83 LIKES
Pascal Montjovent
Kudos for the quick turnaround on this in-depth piece about GPT-4o. It's impressive how you've captured the essence of this release, highlighting not just the technological advancements, but also the economic and societal implications, with such speed and clarity. Your ability to distill complex developments into an engaging narrative stands out. Once again.
Paul Toensing
Your crystal ball prediction from this last Saturday was fantastic Alberto! Now a couple of dumb questions: 1). Will this mean that everyone can access the GPT store via either 4 or 4o? 2) Will this multimodality change the very nature of the tools that we can create on the GPT store? The first question has great bearing on my new leaf fledgling business, which is to tap the power of custom GPTs. I always worried about perspective clients barking at the $20 a month. Is that now a done deal?

What I Read This Week...

Google's Deepmind releases a new biology prediction tool, Apple is finalizing a deal with OpenAI, and more than a third of 18-24 year-olds reported no income in 2022
Watch All-In E178 Read our latest deep dive into semiconductors Caught My Eye… Google’s DeepMind has released an improved version of its biology prediction tool AlphaFold. While Google’s previous model amazed the research community with its ability to predict protein structures, Google’s latest iteration can predict the structures and interactions of nearl…
Chamath Palihapitiya ∙ 79 LIKES
Yuri Bezmenov
Shocking stat about Gen Z. We all need to mentor them to be victors not victims. These charts show that the DEI/ESG administrative state in education and healthcare is making us all poorer, sicker, and dumber: https://yuribezmenov.substack.com/p/fire-dei-esg-hr-commissar-administrative-bloat
BMS Capital
Great list, do you think the drop in the young workforce is due to the polarisation of 'get rich quick' and the 'easy' money that can be made online?

OpenAI Just Unveiled The Best AI Model: GPT-4o

Here's why everyone is talking about GPT-4o.
OpenAI finally unveiled GPT-4o! This new model offers real-time multimodal capabilities in audio, vision, and text, but now with significant enhancements. It’s free to use, which shows a strategy similar to that used with GPT 3.5—aimed at attracting new users and further scaling model training.
Kevin Gargate and The PyCoach ∙ 12 LIKES
Taimur Ijlal
it seems we get our minds blown by AI every few months ! .. one step closer to AGI which is going to be a monster disruption to every industry


OpenAI Rules the Changes But Meta Changes the Rules

An analysis on Meta’s master plan and OpenAI’s masterpiece
A blog about AI that’s actually about people Meta has put the entire AI startup ecosystem against the ropes. They’ve released the two smaller versions of the Llama 3 family (8B and 70B-parameter dense models) and have given us a glimpse at the large version, a 405B dense model that although still training, is already showing
Alberto Romero ∙ 35 LIKES
Paul Toensing
Good job doing your homework, as this allows you to make some very good quality contracture. I’m personally hoping that GPT4 will eventually become free because my business model will be greatly assisted by that development. I’m not sure what the odds are, but of course, if we have the momentum of progress on our side, then it shouldn’t take forever.
Ugwu okechukwu
OpenAI's groundbreaking innovations set the stage for transformative changes, and Meta's visionary approach reshapes how we perceive and engage with technology, together paving the way for an exciting future of possibilities.

The Butcher Is Dead. What Comes Next for Iran? Plus. . .

Ben Kawaller wages class war at the Kentucky Derby. Scarlett Johansson rages against the machine. And more.
On today’s Front Page from The Free Press: Ben Kawaller tries to ruin the Kentucky Derby; River Page makes sense of the fight between OpenAI and Scarlett Johansson; Eli Lake has more exclusive reporting on the ICC’s charges against Israel’s leaders; Suzy Weiss asks why Big Tech is censoring Winslow Homer; and much more.
Oliver Wiseman ∙ 301 LIKES
Lauren L
"I did not grow up worrying about money, and that I atone for this sin by feeling terrible about it."
This mindset is why Conservatives are happier than Liberals. There is no purpose in feeling guilt over things you can't control,and frankly, it's selfish.
Rather than wallow in self-pity about not being born less fortunate, practice gratitude and give back to others.
B.
"I soon discovered that politics at a horse race is about as welcome as flatulence at an orgy."
This business of trying to ferret out class shame at a sports event is childish. It's the Kentucky Derby, for heaven's sake, the oldest in the United States (with Westminster Kennel Club dog show a close runner up). It's a time for hats, ties, and mint juleps, and nothing wrong with it.
A little like asking your grandmother, who has spent six days preparing for Christmas dinner despite her aching back, whether she isn't ashamed that she has $60 to drop on the roast beef. And whether using the tablecloth her mother had embroidered isn't an unfortunate show of frivolity in hard times.
As for the hot dog seller: She's doing well. If she rears her kids right, they will do still better.

Brace for Impact: Here Comes the "Cram Down"

Upcoming Edtech Happy Hour Events, ASU+GSV 2024 Session Overviews, US Newspapers Sue OpenAI, Coursera and Chegg Stock Down, and more!
Brace for Impact: Here Comes the “Cram Down” By Ben Kornell
Sarah Morin, Ben Kornell, and Alex Sarlin ∙ 4 LIKES
Matt Rubins
Ben - this is so insightful and so true. Twain said "history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes". I've lived through three of these cycles now - the S&L crisis in '90-93, the dot com and telecom winter from '01 to '04, and then Global Financial Crisis from '08-'11. Every time we go through the same cycle. When a bubble bursts, during the first year people believe that a recovery is right around the corner. It'll be fine! The second year, they realize this may take a while longer and that they need to start cutting costs to extend the runway and avoid exposing themselves to "market pricing discovery". When they run out of moves, they reach the capitulation stage and that's when the dreaded "inside down round" happens. People start to read the deal docs and understand how weighted average anti-dilution provisions really work, what discounts on notes and SAFEs really do to founder economics, and how pay to play provisions work. It's ugly. The companies that get through this phase quickly, or even better proactively in the first two years, are well positioned to be acquirors of both market share and weaker competitors. These cycles typically last 4 years and we're about 18-24 months into this one.
I'm very optimistic about the future. We're seeing strong revenue growth in our portfolio and the long term trends underlying the digitation of education and alternative ways to upskill the workforce are very much intact. It just takes time, but anyone who's been around education for a long time knows that everything takes time in our business.

MAGA's Latest Brain Worm

And, of course, more dog pictures
I regret to inform you that we have not yet reached peak inanity. It was tempting to believe that the pilgrimages of the MAGA faithful to pay homage to Donald Trump’s hush money trial, and/or MTG’s unhinged rants about fake eyelashes were an indication that we were close to exhausting our capacity for eyerolls. No such luck.
Charlie Sykes ∙ 148 LIKES
Mike B.
Thanks for first posting pics of an adorable puppy, a nice way to soften the blow of the content that followed. Charlie, what's that green object in your hand? At first I thought it was an unusual citrus fruit. Must be a dog toy or part of a leash.
Anyway, the brain worms...apparently these parasitic invertebrates trigger paranoia, disable higher brain function (assuming there was much to begin with), negate any communication filters, and ultimately transform the host into a psychopathic infant. Sadly there is no cure for these annelid cerebral leeches.
Alexandra Barcus
Sometimes there is nothing left to be done in response but to put your head down and hold it tight in case it explodes from the nonsense.
Little pup was so cute with Pete!

Hot take on OpenAI’s new GPT-4o

GPT-4o hot take: • The speech synthesis is terrific, reminds me of Google Duplex (which never took off). but • If OpenAI had GPT-5, they have would shown it. • They don’t have GPT-5 after 14 months of trying. • The most important figure in the blogpost is attached below. And the most important thing about the figure is that 4o is not a lot different from Tur…
Gary Marcus ∙ 116 LIKES
Michelangelo D'Agostino
As someone who builds on top of these API's, I think you're underestimating how big of a deal the drastically reduced latency is. Yes the evals look like diminishing returns but the latency and cost improvements are drastic.
Gerben Wierda
Spot on. The ways in which it becomes more convincing that there is actual understanding seem to outpace actual progress on understanding.
In the meantime Sam discusses UBC when GPT-7 arrives. Which is all too much messianic prophet for my taste.
Human intelligence by the way is also amazing as well as often pretty dumb, so who are we to point fingers?

AI Wars: Google vs ChatGPT

Plus, the best way to send a fax for free.
Dear friends, Busy week in the world of tech. I was up in Mountain View for Google’s biggest event of the year, Google IO. It’s a developer’s conference where programmers learn more about the tools available to build apps, but there is always a more consumer-facing keynote describing all of the neat things Google is working on.
Rich DeMuro ∙ 14 LIKES

May 17

The point of A.I. is to talk to a cool computer

PLUS: U.S. and U.K. media: What if both are bad?
This Read Max newsletter is brought to you by Defector: It pains me to admit this, but I get steamed thinking about how Bari Weiss’s stupid website has 90k subscribers. Ignoring the alternately banal and odious nature of their work, they barely publish anything! Just a few blogs each day, half of which are self-aggregation. It’s a huge ripoff!
Max Read ∙ 42 LIKES
sam
I'm a bit surprised that UK public/media opinion has run so unanimously against Letby, given the recency of the Post Office Horizon scandal, where hundreds of subpostmasters were convicted for fraud and theft, all "proven" by accounting software that sucked and effectively made the whole thing up.
The ITV documentary just came out a couple months ago, but it's dragged on for years, and seems like a clear warning against the combination of prosecutorial zeal centering on flimsy data interpretation.
Dan Rob Jones
“The U.K. has no particular equivalent to The New Yorker, or any of The New Yorker’s many American peers--no outlet dedicated to long-form, “literary” investigative journalism and original reporting.“
I think part of the reason for this is the dominance of BBC Radio 4 - it operates in a similar place in British culture to the New Yorker in the US. A lot of pieces that could have been a magazine longread get commissioned as a half-hour or hour long radio documentary instead.

OpenAI fluffs its lines as model collapse makes a mockery of its flagship

Leadership in AI is back up for grabs as Chat GPT-4o fails to advance, sending Microsoft, Google, and Apple, scrambling to gain ground...
Before I get to the big news of the day out of OpenAI, I have a favour to ask. I publish most of my insights for free, because I believe the facts in them are important enough to need as large an audience as possible, but my work isn’t free. Future Media is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free…
Ricky Sutton ∙ 3 LIKES

OpenAI's GPT-4o and Partnership with Apple 🍎

Mira Murati was magical, not sure about all of these accessibility upgrades.
Audio Introduction 🎧 0:54 Hello Everyone, OpenAI had a Spring Update event the day before Google I/O begins, today as I write this on May 13th, 2024. It comes at an awkward time for Google, that lost market share as Apple’s talks with OpenAI have gone well to bring GPT-4o’s Voice to presumably, the upcoming iOS 18 and iPhones of 2025.
Michael Spencer ∙ 45 LIKES
Riley Tom
Definitely waiting for Siris new update, as well as integration into some big time video games and VR software. Then this takes off to a new level, albeit more niche than these general purpose model, but way more immersive
Oguz Erkan
That’s a very comprehensive take on the Michael. As you said I am not sure whether OpenAI will get the voice assistant right but I am satisfied for one reason: Ability to solve easy math problems.
This is significant because basically what differs AGI from the current models is next-token-prediction.
Current models lack this, if the question wasn’t included in their training data they simply can’t solve it. I am not telling it can’t provide an answer, it will and these answers will sometimes be true, but it won’t get that answer by applying logic predicting the outcome.
The questions illustrated were too basic so they could already be included in the training data. But if they were not included in the data as a block and the mode can solve a basic math problem like 1+2+7+3+5+12+33+17=? then AGI is basically just building on this.