Notes
God dammit Nikkei..😒
Alright 🇯🇵BOJ policy just front-ran 🇺🇸FOMC:
“The central bank currently aims for monthly purchases of around ¥6tn, has informed the market of plans to purchase between ¥4.8tn ~ ¥7tn of bonds per month.”
So current estimates are for ~¥70tn in JGB roll off (redemptions) for FY24, meaning if they take the monthly buying amount below ~¥5.7tn/month (which is more or less where the current is, so it will be less), then net-net, that technically puts BOJ in “QT” territory.
JGB futures taking a tick down. JPY doesn’t seem to give a F - at the moment, but that’s because Fed is about to do whatever they’re going to with their stupid ±1 dot plot. So all of this is now going to be mixed into the FOMC/Powell market reaction on FX & on yields - so beware of that - there is no more “clean read” on Fed market reaction anymore thanks to Nikkei/BOJ.
So much for “no more BOJ press leaks” that lasted a whole month - and a month of announcing nothing anyway.
🇯🇵Market confidence 👍
