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Hey Mike, I know you are talking about women's events, just clarifying that.
Here's another way to look at it. Let's do a Monte Carlo simulation of the outcome, with an assumption of significant variability in performance over the championship weekend—let’s say a ±30% swing from the psych sheet projections.
Denison Men’s Victory is Overwhelmingly Likely
In 10,000 runs of the simulation, Denison wins 9,525 times. Emory wins 298 times, NYU wins 177 times. And that's it.
Kenyon Women Face a Much Tighter Battle
Applying the same ±30% variability to the women’s meet, the championship picture looks far less certain. In 10,000 simulations, the distribution of victories across teams is as follows:
Kenyon – 3,356 wins
MIT – 2,711 wins
NYU – 2,456 wins
Emory – 1,158 wins
Denison – 302 wins
Williams – 17 wins
Before accounting for diving results—an additional factor that could further shift the balance—Kenyon does not win the majority of simulations. This suggests a highly competitive race, where multiple teams have a legitimate shot at the title.
