I have personally been dating the formal end of the post-war liberal order to "liberation day" if only for the bitter dramatic irony of the naming, so i take your larger point.

That said, I presently believe that some form of network of alliance will, pending what happens in coming months, still be there but notably lacking in the trust that is their fertilizer.

My basis for that assessment is U.S. technological and industrial capacity, which even if surpassed in some domains by China is still years out of reach in many areas even if a united Europe puts their mind and debt financing to it. That said the admin is setting alight US scientific seed corn and industrial supply chains right now, so what preminence we maintain may prove a wasting asset.

The second best world i contemplate is what forms of alliance cooperation are still possible now that the old assurances no longer apply. I have my ideas.

But to answer your question my go to analogy is Brexit. Both obvious and quite possibly too low magnitude, but i would eagerly read a study outlining what we should proportionately expect.