When you say *much more Rightist*, I'm guessing you may mean more of a Manchin figure and not just a Democratic red or purple state governor that runs ahead of Biden.

I've heard the opposite argument, that the various factions of the party would each hold out for firm promises on their issues rather than seek to maximize the odds of an overall win.

As you say, precedent isn't that helpful here, but I'm curious about your read of the convention field, even if it appears to be a moot point.