ASML Investor Day: Oops They Did It Again. Different Story, Same 2030 Targets.

ASML maintains its 2030 targets, Revenue EUR 44-60bn, Gross Margin 56-60%. But the narrative has changed, again. In 2022 investor day, a lot of time was spend on Mature nodes growth (DUV) and EUV. In 2024, its all about AI driving demand for Logic and DRAM EUV.

What's changed? Lower growth in Smartphone and PC, Auto more muted trajectory, AI bigger than expected. Server DRAM and HBM is the major positive change. NAND is revised down sharply. It's actually believable. 

The guidance implies Operating Profits growing between 9.5-17.5% Cagr over 2024-2030. That's pretty good but the stock is trading at 27x 2025 EPS, 22x 2026. No room for disappointment.