"You could argue that Wayne is simply a statistical outlier that I cherry picked, but the event rate of deaths after vaccination appears to be a Poisson distribution (because everyone is vaccinated at a different independent time) and it’s highly unlikely that Wayne is 4X way from the mean since the standard deviation of a Poisson distribution is the mean. This means that even if Wayne’s case is a statistical anomaly, we’re looking at a death rate of 1% or more. So that would be 2M deaths."
That is not correct. The standard deviation of a Poisson distribution is NOT equal to the mean but equal to the square root of the mean, because it is the VARIANCE (the square of the standard deviation) of a Poisson distribution that equals the mean. That means that the true measure is whether Wayne is 2X way from the mean, which would be not as unlikely as all that after all.