When you conduct supply chain analysis of the Semiconductor Supply network, you expect certain data graphs to align.

It is not that the graphs need to be married, but they certainly need to be dating.

As a high proportion of Cloud CapEx is spent on expensive GPUs and memory, you would expect Semiconductor CapEx to follow Cloud CapEx, but the two have recently been divorced.

You could argue that this is not surprising, as Semiconductors are used in products beyond the cloud, but the cloud's share of semiconductor revenue has grown from 19% at the beginning of 2020 to 43% at the end of 2025.

The Cloud market is now the single most important Semiconductor market, by a stretch.

You could argue that the exorbitant GPU and Memory prices are driving up Cloud CapEx, which is a stronger argument, but eventually that will fail as well.

Soon, more Semiconductor CapEx will be needed, as Cloud CapEx grew 65% in 2025 and is projected to grow 66% in 2026.

Or we will have a problem.