Our AI bubble stress test came down to one idea: the AI build-out is being funded before real customer cashflows are fully proven.

That is why the “Nvidia is creating fake revenue through OpenAI” take is too simple. Nvidia is not just giving money to a customer to get revenue back. It is trying to speed up the AI market.

If OpenAI grows faster, compute demand grows faster. That keeps Microsoft, Amazon and Google building more AI infrastructure, which keeps pressure on the whole cycle. For Nvidia, that can be a rational investment if it helps the market grow faster and pulls more demand through the broader AI build-out.

So the issue is not fake revenue. The issue is whether Nvidia is adding more air to the AI bubble before outside cashflows are strong enough to hold it. That is where the weak spots start to show.