I’ve been sitting on a recent article by M. K. Bhadrakumar for a few days. It features MKB’s usual perceptiveness analysis, sparked by the much remarked upon Op-Ed by Robert Gates and Condi Rice that appeared in the WaPo last Saturday, titled Time is not on Ukraine’s side. By MKB’s reading, the Op-Ed signals “Biden’s Existential Angst in Ukraine”. It’s not clear to me that Zhou is capable of such deep feelings or reflections, so I choose to take the ruminations of these indubitable Deep State insiders as reflecting a crisis of confidence within the Deep State. That’s a healthy thing, for the good of the nation. Someone needs to wake up and take stock of where our corrupt ruling class has landed us. Sadly, the lack of intellectual depth of our rulers is on full display—Gates and Rice have nothing to offer except doubling down on stupid, doubling down on the criminal use of Ukrainian lives as cannon fodder in our proxy war on Russi, by sending more weapons to Ukraine. And yet they know full well that we aren’t in a position to change the inevitable outcome.
BMK does note that, unsurprisingly, Russia has been following the House Speaker embroglio closely. In fact, a prominent Russian political commentator was quick to note:
the Republicans have a chance to "block the uncontrolled cash flow" supporting Kiev. "Such an audit may be an eye-opener for those who vote to support the Kiev junta which is mired in corruption and intends to continue aggression,"
The prospect of such an audit might be quite an eye-opener for the American public, coming close in time with the revelations that may come from the Ukraine docs in Zhou’s closet.
MKB himself speculates that the Gates - Rice may have been scripted for the purposes of increasing pressure on NATO states to send heavier weaponry (more modern Main Battle Tanks, more advanced Air Defense systems) to Ukraine—an escalation which most European countries have understandably been resisting. It’s difficult to see what significant effect such shipments could have in light of recent Russian moves, which are decisively reshaping the global security landscape:
Pentagon is unsure of Surovikin’s future strategy. From what they know of his brilliant success in evicting NATO officers from Syria’s Aleppo in 2016, siege and attrition war are Surovikin’s forte. But one never knows. A steady Russian build-up in Belarus is underway. The S-400 and Iskander missile systems have been deployed there. A NATO (Polish) attack on Belarus is no longer realistic.
On January 4, Putin hailed the New Year with the formidable frigate Admiral Gorshkov carrying “cutting-edge Zircon hypersonic missile system, which has no analogue,” embarking on “a long-distance naval mission across the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, as well as the Mediterranean Sea.”
A week earlier, the sixth missile-carrying strategic nuclear-powered submarine of the Borei-A class, The Generalissimus Suvorov, joined the Russian Navy. Such submarines are capable of carrying 16 inter-continental ballistic missiles Bulava.
In any event, for our purposes MKB’s concluding paragraphs were the most trenchant:
The fog of war envelops Russian intentions. Rice and Gates have warned that time works in favour of Russia: “Ukraine’s military capability and economy are now dependent almost entirely on lifelines from the West — primarily, the United States. Absent another major Ukrainian breakthrough and success against Russian forces, Western pressures on Ukraine to negotiate a cease-fire will grow as months of military stalemate pass. Under current circumstances, any negotiated cease-fire would leave Russian forces in a strong position.”
This is a brutally frank assessment. Biden’s call to Scholz on Friday shows the angst in his mind, too. With the fragmentation of the political class within America, Biden can ill afford cracks in allied unity as well.
Curiously, this was also the main thrust of an article a fortnight ago by a top Russian pundit Andrey Kortunov in the Chinese Communist Party daily Global Times titled US domestic woes could push Ukraine to sidelines of American public discourse.
Kortunov wrote: “Putting emotions aside, one has to accept that the conflict has already become existential not only for Ukraine and Russia, but for the US as well: the Biden administration cannot accept a defeat in Ukraine without facing major negative implications for the US positions all over the world.”
Kortunov was writing almost a fortnight before Rice and Gates began getting the same metaphysical perception. But the neocons aren’t yet prepared to accept that the choice is actually staring at them — Biden swimming alongside Putin toward a multipolar world order, or sinking in the troubled waters.
These additional quotes from the Kortunov article are worth noting, as indicative of a certain level of sophistication among Russian American-watchers:
The [Patriot] decision, however, should be regarded more as a symbolic political gesture rather than as a signal that the US military assistance to Ukraine is now raising to a new level. The Patriot system can hardly be considered a modern system - it is already in operation for almost four decades. It might be more efficient than any air defense weapon that Ukraine has now, but it is not going to be a game-changer in the conflict.
…
… there is a strong bipartisan consensus in Washington on the Ukrainian issue. In general, Republicans are no less supportive of Kiev than Democrats are. However, at least some Republicans, such as Kevin McCarthy, the likely new Speaker of the House, are going to raise specific questions regarding the US military, financial and economic assistance to Ukraine. In particular, they will call for more scrutiny and more transparency in assistance deliveries and they will insist on more rigid accounting procedures. …
It seems that the real problem of Zelensky is not to convince the US political establishment about the need to continue supporting Kiev, but rather to preserve the Ukrainian narrative in the focus of the US public. As the conflict goes on, this is becoming increasingly difficult, since many domestic US problems inevitably push Ukraine to the sidelines of the American public discourse. The recent midterm election was a visual manifestation of this challenge - in the election campaign, Ukraine did not make even to the ten top political issues.
All this is a strong suggestion that the Russian political class share the view of Gates - Rice: Time is on Russia’s side.
The fact that the American public does not care about Ukraine very much may be taken as a good sign for the neocons that the media has managed public opinion so well that Americans don't really care if we print a little extra money to send to Ukraine.
Article link:
https://www.indianpunchline.com/bidens-existential-angst-in-ukraine/