when the US was a bigger commodity importer, a rise in commodity prices was associated with a deterioration in its terms of trade. Now that the US is a big net oil exporter, higher commodity prices are associated with a stronger terms of trade and this is reflected in its exchange rate. As Rees notes, the share of commodities in US exports increased by more than 10 percentage points between 2000 and 2022. The US became a net oil exporter in 2019 and this lines up very nicely with the disconnect between the AUD TWI and commodity prices shown above.