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Regardless of what happens with the Epstein scandal (will this be the scandal that brings down Trump?), people need to understand that Trump has become a consequential President, for good or bad, or both, even if he drops dead tomorrow. Trump has exposed the fundamental weaknesses in the US constitutional order and the nature of the American people, likely permanently changed the post World War II international order to the benefit of China and other dictatorships, and fundamentally changed economic policies and international supply chains. I remind everyone that President Biden retained Trump’s first term tariffs, and expanded them. Does anyone seriously believe a Democratic Party President is going to overturn them and give up the revenue and protections for various US industries? Highly unlikely. The administrative state has been permanently damaged and it will be difficult to rebuild it, especially since the Supreme Court has given carte blanche to any future President to act unilaterally and undo whatever a Democratic President enacts. The Trump tax cuts for the wealthy are permanent and the few Middle Class benefits (increased deductions for seniors, no taxes on tips and overtime, all below certain income levels) expire in 2029. If Democrats take full control in 2029 are they going to let them expire and take the blame? And I remind everyone that the Trump tax cuts were not repealed when Democrats controlled the Presidency and Congress, not even for the ultra wealthy. The fiscal situation of the US, which was not great but at least fixable after the Obama Presidency, is now dire and cannot be addressed without significant cuts to Middle Class benefits even if taxes on the wealthy are doubled (assuming the wealthy don’t evade them, as they typically fund a way to do). So the concept of expanded government programs is not feasible and it would be a major accomplishment just to maintain current programs without significant cuts. The European Union has been fully exposed as a weak and pathetic counterweight to US and Chinese economic power and China is expanding its economic production and alliances around the world. Trump has likely fatally damaged the ability of the US clean energy industry to compete against China. High quality immigrants who drive startup technology companies are now looking elsewhere to start businesses. The so-called progressive people who stayed home in 2016 or refused to vote for (admittedly flawed) Hillary Clinton and the remaining principled Republicans who refused to bite the bullet and vote for Clinton allowing Trump to pull an inside straight to win the 2016 election and set us on this course will reap the “rewards” along with the rest of us who saw this train wreck miles away. I don’t know how we fix this, and I have lost confidence in the American people and our leadership.

Jul 30
at
2:03 PM

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