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China's 5 year plan has no surprises either, much of this was signalled early and often. However, its ambitious plans to increase spending across so many areas (basic research, semiconductors, agriculture seeds, digital infrastructure, physical infrastructure, military modernization, etc) is itself a huge risk.

It is one because there is a risk that they spend enormous amount of their GDP trying to perfect everything, but if they are not successful enough in reaching those goals, they may find not only political risk (egg on the face) but the risk of having taken away resources that are urgently needed elsewhere (such as maintaining employment or financial stability or poverty relief) that are critical to maintaining stability.

The US is certainly motivated to make it difficult for them to accomplish those ambitious goals, and given those goals are already difficult without opposition from the US and its allies, it's going to be a long tough slog for China. Hence, a lot of preparation for that "Long March" by XJP

Mar 12, 2021
at
6:38 PM