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I think China figured out that "peaceful reunification" on their terms wasn't going to happen many years ago.

That being said, they are hoping to coerce a "peaceful reunifiation" through economic and military pressure. Given US support of TW, they need to build an overwhelming power advantage in military/tech/economy to ward off the US and force TW to agree. It's certainly not guaranteed they can accomplish this, but even China would admit they are still a decade or two away (assuming they can grow like they have been the past 20 years).

So in the next 10 years, there likely won't be a cross-strait war, as China tries to build up the power to coerce TW (and the US) while the US and China engage in a tech and economic "cold war"

What happens after that depends on how successful (or unsuccessful) China is in building up its power despite opposition. The period of greatest risk ironically is probably when China starts to weaken and sees taking TW as a last shot to uphold legitimacy at home

Mar 12, 2021
at
7:05 PM