I was listening to a great speech by George Friedman, and he said that the existential security issue for China was being choked off from its external supply lines, given its dependency on the outside world for its most crucial ingredients (in order of importance): food, oil, tech (chips) and given how easy it would be to close up the chokepoints around China.

Because China and the US are such different (almost antithetical) systems, and because China sees "reunifying" Taiwan under its authoritarian rule as a core interest, there doesn't seem to be any room for reassurance by the US about the security of China's supply lines (especially if China reserves the right to use force against TW/Senkaku/India)

Seems to me we are trapped in a zero-sum situation similar to Japan in WW2, where Japan had huge vulnerabilities on the supply lines as well. We know what happened then, and Japan eventually solved its security dilemna after defeat by aligning with the US in almost everything.

FWIW, I believe the Chinese are much more cautious than the Japanese 80 years ago, and are hoping to grow into a stronger position and eliminate those supply chain risks and thus won't initiate a war. Hence, we are locked into a state of tension for the foreseeable future