Agreed, the chance of an outright collapse is small. More likely is a long and secular slide into a period of extended stagnation, where their ability to project power and influence is greatly diminished (e.g. no more saber-rattling along the borders, Taiwan, SCS, etc. and possibly a defacto acceptance of status quo as it was 10 years ago (a #2 or #3 economy that doesn't have the wherewithal to dictate events outside of its borders). Hopefully a less nationalistic country as well