One thing many outside analysts forget when considering an assault on Taiwan is that many counter-attacks could place concurrently. The PRC is surrounded by enemies, from India to Afghanistan to Australia to the Philippines to Vietnam to rabid Hong Kong dissidents. If China attacks Taiwan but loses parts of Yunnan, Xinjiang, Ladakh, the South China Sea, and the SARs while having major cities and installations bombarded with missiles, the outcome won't be pretty. The party's saber rattling is political theatre, for now.

Given how the PRC government keeps showing its hand (bragging about outdated tech such as decades-old drone submarines in the SCMP, underwhelming ICBM subs, etc) while relentlessly "exercising" over the strait, it is more likely that the party is trying to influence Taiwanese domestic politics in order to scare Taiwanese into voting for the KMT.

What the CCP does not understand is that people are willing to kill and die for freedom, especially once they have had a taste of it. The CCP will keep losing elections in landslides in Taiwan just like they lost them in Hong Kong (a territory they actually control) so long as Xi Jinping is romping around in his Mao suit and Stalin haircut. It is also worth acknowledging that Taiwan experienced unprecedented economic growth after severing many ties to the PRC.

Perhaps after they lose the next Taiwanese presidential election (or two or three) Xi will have greater military power and might roll the dice with an assault or a blockade, but the threats of NATO and much of APAC would have to recede significantly. It is hard to see this happening unless China gets itself out of the pandemic control mindset.

I could be wrong, maybe the PLA attacks next week while their enemies sit back and watch, but the only thing American industrialists like more than cheap exploited labor is selling their highest-priced weapons of war to their own government. American soldiers and citizens already believe the CCP poses an existential threat, and Xi's speech has greatly reinforced this perception...