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Clyde Prestowitz- Again, I am sorry to be a wet blanket of contradiction, but we in the Reagan administration got few if any concessions from Japan that turned out to be harmful to Japan. The one deal to which you might be referring is the Plaza agreement under which Japan (and Germany to a lesser extent) undertook to revalue the yen. That was not a mistake on the part of Japan. The mistake Japan made was to try to offset the impact of the revaluation by printing money to reduce the cost of capital. Indeed, in the late 1980s and early 1990s, the cost of capital for big Japanese companies became negative. In addition, the price of real estate soared and one of history's great bubbles expanded and eventually burst. But keep in mind that all this did not really alter the U.S.-Japan economic structure. Japan continued and continues to run a large trade surplus with the U.S. U.S. industries like machine tools, semiconductors, autos, etc. continued to decline while expanding in Japan. Even the so called "lost decade" of Japan was not as lost as many experts say. If you compare U.S. GDP growth to that of Japan from 1990-2000 and if you adjust for inflation and population growth, the performance of the two countries was virtually the same. Secondly, even if you believe the Reagan team had some success with Japan, you must keep in mind that the Biden team has far far less negotiating leverage vis a vis China than we in the Reagan administration had against Japan.

Oct 1, 2021
at
3:25 PM