The question of where things go with Germany is an interesting one. US political elites seem increasingly fed up with Germany on both sides of the aisle, and from the perspective of the average US voter the idea of almost completely subsidizing military defense for Germany while they tighten economic ties with Russia and China will be increasingly toxic (and it is already pretty bad!) As you note, it feels like there is a lot of potential for a quick drop in relations there even under more "normal" and stable US administrations.