The domestic pressures right now are considerable, but I still find this assessment quite unlikely, and any CCP banking on a similar crack-up will likely lead to some very poor outcomes for China. I would be surprised if even 10% of Trump voters would be genuinely in favor of any kind of secessionist movement, and the US simply does not have the same kind of sectarian ethnic stressors present in Yugoslavia prior to its crack-up. McConnell may be many things, but a secessionist he is not, and Trump is far too incompetent to assemble any kind of genuine secessionist coalition even if he wanted to (he does not).