Both. The H+M thing seems consistent with your theory. But the sanctions, no. Definitely a contingent plan that was simply executed upon fulfillment of conditions. The EU, let s be more specific, the EU parliament (probably the worst 'democratic' institution self-selecting the least talented, the least representative and the least competent politicians in the West) pulled a half-hearted symbolic lever for an easy win...Trump-like...now it s stuck. A short term punt has turned into a long term 'investment'.