Thorough dissection. Nice work. I take a somewhat simpler view. In trying to analyze complex problems in both private and public sectors, I've found it useful to categorize human cognitive style in two groups: Concrete Operational (firemen, skilled craftsmen, most managers, and indeed most workers) and Abstract Analytical (system architects, creative scientists, innovate entrepreneurs). The former are rules-oriented and succeed by following those rules. These folks keep society running from one day to the next. Abstract Analytical is surprisingly rare and includes the ability to visualize situations that have not yet occurred. Despite impressive sounding titles, the managerial cadre tends to be Concrete Operational. That is, focused on the here-and-now and on the details of familiar processes. They resist any hint that their system might contain flaws - that is, be vulnerable to unexpected failure - not just because they don't choose to visualize such a possibility but because they, in fact, can't. Thus they blunder into disaster, eyes averted, firm in the belief that "it can't happen here." No matter how much someone warns them - complete with charts, graphs, and statistical probability analysis - they still lose vast amounts of money. In one case, ignoring my warning cost the company $10,000 a minute. This is the same mindset that sent millions of young men "over the top" to their death in the Somme yet never changed strategy through the rest of the WWI.