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I disagree with the view that Beijing is lashing out and over-reacting; I think that this is part of a deliberate strategy for China to disengage from western markets and build its own brands domestically through dual circulation, and with developing markets in Africa and Latin America who have bad memories of the colonialist period. Part of China's aim is to replace Britain's and France's traditionally economic ties with sub-Saharan Africa.

Xi has made it clear that this is part of a new Long March (understandable on the 100th anniversary of the founding of the CCP), and that the Chinese people may need to make more sacrifices as it builds its own domestic market and new markets. This New Long March analogy is also very useful in reinforcing the party's image as the vanguard party of the Chinese people, leading them to a bright new future. The message is that the western media serves western interests, and that as long as China is a threat to western interests, they will oppose China's rise. This time though, China will not roll over, and for every blow the west delivers, China will strike back three times, each time harder than the last. This criticism also goes for more progressive western groups who support human rights; they are simply non-government groups who are the other hand of western governments. By declaring a strong line against western values and interests, the Chinese people may need to make short-term sacrifices, but this is an inevitable cost of the rise of China.

Media in the US inevitably think of every Chinese move as an anti-US provocation, and are not as sensitive to how China and the US are perceived in other markets. China has been more sensitive to this, and has long reached out to developing markets. Many in the US media like to say that corruption is a popular Chinese tool in forging these ties, but that is an over-simplification.

China's strongest engagement with the US comes at the financial level, with China's central bank as one of the largest buyers of US Treasury bonds. When the US, China relationship was friendly, the US could count on China buying US treasuries and keeping interest rates low. This may not be necessarily the case in the new future.

Biden has made it clear that he will pump about US$5T of liquidity into the US economy through a combination of the American Rescue Plan and a major infrastructure development plan. Some of this money will find its way to China, becoming a major headache for China's central bank, which has pursued a much more cautious monetary policy than the US, and may contribute to Chinese inflation. So, from the Chinese perspective, the US is not a force for stability, but for volatility.

Mar 26, 2021
at
4:22 PM