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About (2): I don't know if from a sheer volume this will show up, but venture capital and private equity will be very active in China in 2020. Just like everything else is different since either the GFC (2008) or SARS (2003), innumerable firms have long-standing local teams in Beijing, Shanghai, and of course Hong Kong. Especially because many believe China will recover faster, economically, than the rest of the world and because the macro mega trends still favor China, there is a lot of interest and chatter about it. 2009, post GFC was one of the greatest years of foreign FDI VC investing into China. Of course a great deal of this capital will go into the VIE structure so not initially into China but surely the capital will get into China by the companies. The other point which is very different is the relative outperformance and robustness of the China domestic equity capital markets. Essentially with the capital account tightly managed, China is becoming an attractive closed-loop system for foreign investment.

Of course this does not address all the manufacturers who have already begun to pull out and relocate to other countries for cost reasons or the US-China conflict.

Mar 20, 2020
at
4:41 PM