Until the inflation hawks acknowledge and explain why they've been wrong at every point in the last generation, the onus is on them, in my opinion, to show why there will be inflation, not people who are less worried about inflation.

The monetary base tripled between 2008 and 2011 with no inflation. The inflation hawks have no explanation and indeed when I try to bring that simple data point up with finance bros they get angry or condescending--it somehow threatens their status, I think because they think they're successful and virtuous and good at making money, and somehow see printing money as unvirtuous and something that devalues their efforts, so it's an emotional, rather than logical, opinion. Just heard inflation talk again a few days ago from a finance type on the golf course :).

The somewhat better argument today is that M2 has roughly doubled during Covid (it never increased during the financial crisis), and so inflation must follow. M2 has obviously increased because people are saving so much more given the uncertainty, but as Krugman points out, it's relatively straightforward to follow--$2 trillion in new household deposits (people are saving during Covid), $2 trillion therefore in new bank reserves, which lend that to the Fed to purchase securities, so $2.5 trillion in the Fed's balance sheet, but it's not the Fed printing money to pay our deficit, it's households saving that money. So it's not Weimar Germany.

Until those arguments are addressed, I'm not buying the inflation talk.