Hey Kenneth, When you say Xi’s path is “secure” I take that to mean “fixed” as in he knows which direction he wants to take the country and has the power to do so, right? Agree, and also agree with all your analysis of his character and how his experience shaped him, and I would emphasize even more he seems to be a dyed in the wool Marxist as Bill has said, plus I’ve imbibed a bit of the shanghai Chinese businessperson view that he has essentially a grade school education (since he stopped school after grade school then “attended” college) so we aren’t dealing with someone with a sophisticated view of economics. Hence you hear nothing anymore of rebalancing, and that problem hasn’t gone away (as a cursory look at consumption as a % of GDP will tell you) just as it didn’t go away for the literally two dozen other countries in the past century with the exact same growth model who ALL failed to sustain the growth rate (which again doesn’t mean collapse or that it’s not a huge strategic rival and anti-liberal threat) and had decades of stagnation. So his inability to create domestic competition and sustainable economic growth via asset transfer from govt to households and a real business rule of law will likely sink their growth just as it has for literally every other country in the same spot historically. As for alliances, they have only North Korea and Cambodia/Laos, although I agree se Asia could swing either way if they think we are out of the game and that’s a real risk. As for Europe, unless Europe decides to accept Chinese technology hegemony and the unfair non-commercial behavior of their Soe’s in Europe and lack of reciprocation for European companies in terms of fair treatment in China—and the Europeans certainly seem to be hardening not softening—I don’t see what “soften” would mean for China towards Europe as Xi will not undercut the centerpiece of his policy which is ironclad, zero-sum extra-judicial party control over all aspects of Chinese society and especially strategic industries. I more likely see a stagnant but still super strong Chinese bloc of China, n Korea, Cambodia Laos, Russia, and a few other countries like potentially Hungary or parts of Italy, with a fight especially for influence in se Asia and and Africa. Not sure about South America really but seems like it will not be very easy for China to bring it into its sphere of influence except Cuba and Venezuela so probably not a decisive factor either way. Imo if trump is re-elected though and we continue not to foster alliances, many more countries might decide to come to terms and accept Chinese hegemony and then the USA might be in real trouble.