I think that you are correct on both counts. China under Xi is preparing for a serious confrontation (this has been an ongoing trend). What's more, the messaging on Ukraine has been seriously disappointing. I'm not sure where it all will end, but it seems to me that China has essentially taken sides and will likely be sending significant quantities of aid designed to directly assist Russia's attacks on the Ukrainians. WRT the economy, this isn't quite a "dead cat bounce", but it does not look sustainable, especially in light of structural moves designed to give the Communist Party even more control over how the economy is managed. I'm not trying to be dogmatic (modern Capitalism is in bad shape because of the extent to which wealthy individuals and companies have corrupted the political process--including political parties writ large and individual elected officials--in Canada, the United States, the UK and other democratic states). Nonetheless, the underlying principle of market economics (that independent actors interacting in well-regulated free markets are the most effective agents for price discovery and resource allocation) is still valid--and it is a principle that the Communist Party leadership under Xi's aegis seems deeply uncomfortable with.