The ball is in the hands of the US, and if the CCP uses some degree military force against or around Taiwan, the US-side will know the day and hour to be on high alert. Any endangerment of Speaker Pelosi’s well-being would clearly signal to US allies that China, not the US has crossed a line too far. Further, a kinetic retaliation by the PRC would provide the US-led coalition a pretext to further unify. Further, with the 20th National Congress of the CCP coming-up, of course political pressure is high and Chairman Xi must appeal to both civilian and PLA officials alike as the man for the job. It could be a paper tiger bluff. However, in all honesty, this situation perplexes me and if I were the US right now, I wold have every intelligence asset begin to develop and explore possible PRC courses of action in order to understand the nuance situation more closely. In essence, like Pete Blaber says in “The Men, the Mission, and Me,” when in doubt, develop the situation.