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This is military fan-fiction at best. The world today is not Empire Total War, nor is it even the world pre-WW2 (Coronavirus, while terrible, has been a much milder pandemic than the Spanish Flu, in both economic and human cost). For China to start all-out wars around its borders is both economic and national suicide. China today derives its international power not primarily from military pressure, but from economic pressure; starting wars is a great way to immediately cut off trade relations and disrupt global supply chains to the extent our world economy will not be working properly. There's no nation in the world that chooses to irrationally dispense that kind of immense misery and stress upon its people.

China's national planning routinely points to a long-term strategy around technological (quantum, AI, etc.) and hence economic dominance, and where the majority of national investment has gone for the past decade. Due to an increasingly integrated global economy, "wars" between Great Powers are fought with trade policies now, not missiles. I'm not going to say there's absolutely no risk of a Taiwan invasion, but that risk is still low, and invading other countries is completely out of the picture.

Apr 30, 2021
at
7:18 PM