The NYT reports: “ Pakistani officials had previously suggested that an accident sent a company bus into a ravine. Investigators now believe a vehicle packed with explosives rammed the workers’ convoy.”

If this is true, then this was a terrorist attack. This also explains why the majority of fatalities (9) were Chinese as the arrack vehicle apparently targeted that area of the bus where the Chinese were located. While there were several Pakistani fatalities and some 40 people were injured, Chinese bore the brunt of the attack.

As for the perpetrators, as in the several other recent attacks (Gwadar, Karachi Consulate, Karachi Stock Exchange, and the Quetta hotel), the most likely culprit is the Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA) that has fought for Baluch independence for decades and that sees the Chinese as colonialists seeking to exploit Baluchistan’s mineral wealth.

News reports from mid-July state that PM Imran Khan is considering talks with the Baluch separatists. Khan has in the past wavered between expressing support for the BLA to criticizing it as terrorist organization supported by India (Pakistan’s default position).

For all the CCP’s emphasis on grass roots organizing, PRC installations in Pakistan have not reached out to the Baluch. The Chinese authorities have not been well served by their consulates and embassy in Pakistan as far as on the ground reporting on the situation in Baluchistan goes. Apart of course from English, some PRC diplomats speak Urdu (Pakistan’s national language) and Punjabi (the language of Pakistan’s elite), but apparently none speak Baluch or have frequent contact with the Baluch tribes.