I would expect all deaths to tick upwards over the next few years, remember that the Baby Boomers around the world, are the largest generation in human history, and all of them are in retirement now for the most part. It should be expected that death rate starts moving upwards, around the world, as the Baby Boomers pass. The more Machiavellian hypothesis is that governments around the world can't afford the pensions and social spending for this many old people, because they've pissed their money away for decades instead of saving and investing for this moment, and now that they can see the fiscal cliff they're trying to unobtrusively kill grandma and grandpa with this disease so as to not have economic collapse when they can't pay their bills.