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With regards to the U.S. "hollowing out the one-China policy," that assumes that the policy is static and can never be adjusted in light of changes in U.S.-China relations and U.S.-Taiwan relations. There's nothing in the policy that says the U.S. cannot tweak it as needed as long as its relations with Taiwan remain unofficial - which they are and will continue to be.

As the PRC becomes increasingly belligerent towards Taiwan, with an eye on coercing Taipei into accepting a Hong Kong-like arrangement (which has almost no appeal to Taiwan's people), and U.S.-China relations deteriorate amid great-power competition between the two countries, we should not be surprised that the U.S. is stepping up its support for Taiwan and that Beijing reacts angrily.

Further, while the PRC does not recognize the validity of the Taiwan Relations Act, it is U.S. law, and governs the one China policy along with the three U.S.-China Joint Communiques, and the Six Assurances. According to the TRA, the U.S. is obliged to help Taiwan defend itself, so arms sales are going to happen as long as the Chinese threat is manifest.

The Six Assurances are now more relevant than ever because as the PRC becomes more aggressive towards Taiwan, the U.S. is going to emphasize per the Six Assurances that any resolution between the two sides of the Strait is peaceful and acceptable to Taiwan's people.

As improbable as this may sound, the PRC ultimately has to stop coercing Taiwan and constantly threatening to use force. That's the first step to a peaceful resolution of the cross-Strait conundrum. With its geographic proximity to Taiwan and enormous economy, China will never be truly "separated" from the island.

However, as long as revanchism and jingoism drive Beijing's Taiwan policy, there will be very little progress in improving cross-Strait relations, and in an arms race with the U.S., Japan and other American allies, the PRC will lose.

Apr 7, 2023
at
2:53 PM