3. Unfortunately the trade deal was hanging on a thread the minute Phase I was announced. Even in the best of circumstances - absent covid-19 impacts - China would have been very hard pressed to meet the agriculture component of the deal. Now with oil prices nearly half what it was at the beginning of the year, the energy purchase commitment part of the deal, even if China needed more imports, looks to be a grand slam home run for the PRC. Today with the economic malaise we are in, this administration cannot look for the trade deal to resolve anything. Certainly not with more tariffs which were designed to stop at intermediary goods, thus additional tariffs would cut deep into consumers and the economy at the worst time possible. The hawks in the WH have the upper hand now, and unfortunately Trump has no choice but to go along even if he inherently is more predisposed to economic stability. Election positioning requires the Dems/Biden to even out-Trump Trump on China.

And in the backdrop, the whole-of-state initiative to counter China in other ways is in full swing... the State Dept's involvement in initiating TSMC to build a cutting edge semi foundry in AZ (industrial policy) is the clearest example, yet.

The direction is clear, but whether the US chooses to confront with unfettered bombast that takes on cultural tropes and stereotypes, or tries to engage with firm nuance based on clear principles, will dictate how ugly this will get. Unfortunately if we are banking on Trump to be the 'ballast' against hardliners, we are in for a very rough ride.