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Somehow I worry Taiwan is preparing to fight the wrong war.

Any Taiwan experts able to advise how well prepared (if at all) Taiwan would be to survive a protracted air and sea blockade (e.g., strategic oil stockpiles)? Is the island self sufficient from a food perspective?

The PRC might acknowledge that an invasion is unreasonably risky at the moment, but if they starve Taiwan of resources long enough, they might eventually be invited in.

Given the grey zone efforts against Taiwan’s military, are they really committed to fight? Are there any feasible defense or counterattack measures that would be sufficient to get the PLA to pull back?

In the event of such a blockade, is the west willing to sacrifice trade with the PRC unless Taiwan can credibly hold out and defend itself? Will VW allow Scholz to sanction the PRC?

Will the TSMC factories really be destroyed and go up in smoke as is speculated? Would the engineers be allowed to leave to replicate the production capacity elsewhere?

I imagine there are more than a few military and political leaders there who are willing to send their neighbors to re-education camps. An HK-style outcome is undoubtably unattractive to the vast majority on Taiwan, but it might not be a bad solution from some of the elite’s perspective - as in HK.

Apr 8, 2023
at
2:37 PM