Has anyone read this book my Professor Michael Beckley at Tufts?
https://www.amazon.com/Unrivaled-America-Superpower-Cornell-Security/dp/1501724789
I read this review here found in "The Atlantic" (3 May 2021). It confirms the intuitions I've had since about 2012, though perhaps not quite QED. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/05/china-paper-dragon/618778/