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in trying to find an explanation of why the ccp is willing to risk blowing the cai out of the water so soon after agreeing it, I guess we come down to the fact that it sees control of xinjiang as an existential issue.

as for the cai, the evidence so far has been that no matter what the ccp does it has not greatly affected investment and trade. that may change, but the ccp perhaps calculates that it won't.

there was also a geopolitical element to the cai, to divide the eu from the us. but the united nature of the sanctions, endorsed by the eu, us, uk and Canada showed that divide and rule was not necessarily working. so that reason for not upsetting the apple cart may be weaker now.

Mar 26, 2021
at
5:17 PM