it has long been my contention that the ccp's trade bark is worse than its bite. and that many in the press have joined the ccp in the exaggeration. case in point in Wednesday's London times. the Asia editor writes about THAAD and South Korea: "unleashed ruinous retaliation upon its companies in china." ruinous? true, not good for Lotte and cosmetics and Hyundai and Samsung suffered losses, but ruinous? last time I looked h and s were still in china and doing ok.

if anyone knows a study of the Korean experience, please do let me know. but if you look at the uk (2012), Norway (2010-6), Canada, etc, their trade with china either increased throughout the years in the doghouse, or their world trade in the products hit by china did (eg Norwegian fish). displacement trade is a wonderful thing, although it does take a while and much effort to get going. the lesson for any company is the age old one: never rely on one big customer.

on australia the ft article is worth reading. https://www.ft.com/content/95ad03ce-f012-49e9-a0c2-6e9e95353dd1

wine has suffered because there is a world glut. but otherwise the damage is not too bad. and what price one's security and values?

those more expert than I might want to comment on Julian Evans-p's assessment. I am not sure when guinea's simandou mine might come on line, but I would be surprised if it is in volume by mid decade. and vale in Brazil is not doing so well. plus the added expense in transport costs.... it does not come without a large self-inflicted wound for the ccp, whose coal bill must be well up on what it need be.

one can't argue with the greater use of recycled steel, or demand decline within china, but that might be replaced with demand elsewhere if the developing world develops.

so perhaps china's dependence on australia will decline in iron ore. but it might increase in other areas. for example, food security, not least as the developing water crisis in china (perhaps exacerbated by climate change) bites further. china may well have to import more Australian food.