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What do people think about China's Central Bank Digital Currency plans: Threat to the US Dollar, or Digital "Yawn"?

There's a not insignificant amount of hype around the threats it supposedly poses to US Dollar Supremacy, the efficacy of the US-led sanctions regime, and increased authoritarian surveillance. Policymakers are concerned about what this could mean for a potential conflict (https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/digital-currency-wars-national-security-crisis-simulation; https://carnegieindia.org/2021/08/31/china-s-digital-yuan-alternative-to-dollar-dominated-financial-system-pub-85203).

But also, China's tried to float its own alternative int'l payment system (CIPS) that could conceivably get around SWIFT, if they wanted to; increased efficiency and reduced cost of a digital yuan are likely not enough to convince people to use RMB as as the unit of account, especially given the other institutional risks inherent with the RMB (capital controls, rule of law); and prior concerns about RMB internationalization haven't materialized. Given the crackdown on private industry in China, doesn't seem like investors will be more motivated to hold RMB. Other experts aren't so worried (https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2021-04/Martin_Chorzempa_Testimony.pdf).

So - threat, or digital "yawn"?

Oct 29, 2021
at
3:39 PM