Taiwan is unequivocally one of the most dangerous places on earth. The PRC has reverted to a totalitarian dictatorship and hegemonic regional power. The Communist Party has staked its legitimacy on resolving the Taiwan question and it is not if but when they will make a military move.

Economic growth in Mainland China is slowing. As it does manufacturing an international incident will look increasingly attractive. The military balance of power has also shifted significantly. Far too often we don't pay attention to what Zhongnanhai says, and Xi Jinping has made it clear that reunification will be done while he rules. Assuming he rules for life that means invasion happens within the next 20 years. Taiwan is a consistent red line issue for him and Beijing. In a military conflict held today, the United States with its allies would prevail, but in a decade as 30 million unmarried men put pressure on PRC leadership, war will be too tempting for an authoritarian to ignore. Beijing also believes the United States power has crested. The risks of losing a conflict over Taiwan continue to dwindle. At the same time, Xi knows he cannot wait forever. The United States did credible damage to its alliances under Trump and that damage will take time to repair. Once repaired, Xi would not triumph if confronted by India, South Korea, Japan, Australia, the United States, NATO, and Taiwan.

Right now, Mainland China is at near military parity with America within the South China Sea and the PRC still has enough factories and young people to mount a war. In 30 years all of that will change. The PRC will overtake the United States economically on a per capita basis only to then fall back to second and it has become very unlikely that Mainland China will escape the middle income trap. An aging population, gross misallocation of resources, infrastructure with a 30 year shelf life, all of this means Beijing at 2050 doesn't have the power to expand its borders, especially with India next door. But before 2030?

Like the foolish assumption Beijing would politically reform as it grew wealthier, American policy makers have gotten this wrong. Strategic ambiguity worked for decades but only because there was military parity. Inner Mongolia, North Korea, Vietnam, Xinjiang, Tibet, the Himalayas, Myanmar, the South China Sea - the narrative that Beijing is either peaceful or not expansionist is a fallacy. The CCP was only biding its time.

As for Taiwan, it is a strong democracy but possess an increasingly weak military. It's liberalism has led to both military vanity projects and under investment in self defense. Taiwan's own historic dictatorship makes military service an anathema to most of the population. Despite a favorable geography to both self defense and insurgency against an occupying power, the will of Taiwan to fight will last days, not years. It's going through the same divisions and institutional weakness as other global democracies. Its excellenf pandemic response has in some ways masked large internal problems. Taiwan's leaders aren't the best, they are just the best choice presented to voters. Domestically, it will also be unable to wait out the ambiguity forever. Taiwan has been disconnected from Mainland China for over 130 years, since it became a Japanese protectorate. It was never closely connected with the Mainland historically, and while the influx of Kuomintang changed that temporarily, the generation that remembers the Mainland is dead. Taiwan considers itself Taiwanese.

So what should a U.S. policymaker do if the goal is peace and Beijing's goal is reunification through war? Red lines need to be clearly drawn and communicated by Washington. Troops and material needs to be stationed on island in Taiwan. Taipei needs to stop building submarines and start building legions of missiles, sea mines, speed boats, armed drones, and autonomous force augmenting devices. Honestly, a nuke wouldn't be such a bad idea, but considering nuclear reactors are a no go politically for Taipei, very few of the good military choices will be viable. The United States also needs to shore up its Indo Pacific alliances. You can see Japan from Taiwan, which most people don't realize. An attack on Taiwan would necessitate deployment of the PLAN to Japanese territorial waters. The U.S. needs to sign a defense agreement with India, work with Japan to expand its remit to include the defense of allies, and reaffirm commitments with Australia.

If Taiwan falls it won't stop there. The whole of Southeast Asia is covered in ethnic Chinese. Beijing will use the same ethnic argument well practiced by Germany in World War II and modern Russia to invade other countries including likely Malaysia and Singapore. Other Southeast Asian states will either be invaded or collapse into clientism. South Korea would also likely be lost. South Korea would not be victorious in a war with the North backed by Beijing, and a revival of that conflict would be inevitable with the demise of Pax Americana. The death of global America means Turkey, Russia, and other authoritarians will go on a territorial shopping spree. The whole world would plunge into decades of bloody conflict, turmoil, and chaos until maybe India emerges and shakes the world straight. The reality is for most of human history borders were drawn in blood and that only stopped once democracies emerged as dominant powers. Single rulers, monarchies, and other forms of government invade their lesser neighbors and start conflicts when the, "the feelings of their people have been hurt."

The above is a dark take, but I think the Economist is right to point out that this is a very realistic scenario. The last time the world suffered a pandemic of this scale it was followed by a world war and the collapse of the European monarchies. Humanity is at another global inflection point. The only thing that will keep the peace is very nasty weapons held by strong democracies. History teaches us authoritarians start conflicts. We all need to start preparing for the reality that global conflict is highly likely and Beijing will create a casus belli. How Zhongnanhai is treated globally needs to change now, because every unanswered wolf warrior, act of genocide, violation of Hong Kong rights, teaches Xi Dada that political will to confront him is weak. With that lesson the chances of him attacking another nation increases. Beijing now is not Beijing of the 1995 or 2010, no matter how much we wish it was. Taiwan is the most dangerous place on the planet.