i'd be a little careful with the vaccinated % comparison. israel was early, sweden was late.

in mid may, israel was 60%, sweden was 10%. it's all recent so they have not hit the fade part of the curve yet.

also, sweden vaccinated during a low seasonal period vs israel at a high one. it's possible that has effect as adding the increased vulnerability window during peak disease expression is a far bigger risk amplifier.

they also likely developed a lot more natural immunity early on in sweden.

israel has been running about +10% excess mortality while sweden is -10%. i would not call a 2000bp variance that crosses zero a small difference. that's quite large.