i think that the fact that vaccines peak ahead of deaths gives us a further sense of what is driving what and appears the more probable relationship, but i'm not sure we can rule the other one out definitively at this point.

i just want to be clear on all the possible confounds and limitations here and try to lay them out and address them head on. i think a lot of people are playing a but fast and loose with data and what can be concluded from it and am trying not to fall into that trap.