I think the issue is a bad "Unvaccinated" denominator. It spent way too much time in the last two weeks trying to work this out. I wrote my thoughts down just because I couldn't post chart images in the comments here. https://justguy.substack.com/p/what-does-unvaccinated-mean TL;DR Only 10-15% of the "Unvaccinated" group actually have no immunity. The Case Rate still rises - I think that is either fading immunity or an increasingly evasive virus - but the relative rates look very different if you properly remove the Prior Infected from the "Unvaccinated" denominator.