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These are all great seeds. May I add a fourth? One that shrinks rather than grows? The question of China's demographics that the Financial Times wrote about earlier in the week seems to me to be the most important one about China: https://www.ft.com/content/008ea78a-8bc1-4954-b283-700608d3dc6c The FT article claims China's population decreased last year for the first time since the Great Leap Forward. Later in the week China denied it but the government also essentially admitted that soon its population will start shrinking and they did not deny that fertility rates are now down to 1.5 children per woman. China's aging demographics are likely to be worse than previous projections. The UN's World Population Prospects projected China's ratio of the population 65+ per 100 population would be as large as America's by the early 2040s (only 20 years from now). But that projection was using a fertility well above 1.5. China's aging demographics, depending on America's fertility rate and immigration policies, could be worse than America's sooner than people realize. I know China is trying to reverse the decrease in women having children but so have other East Asian countries, so have other countries around the world. None have succeeded and there's no reason to believe China will either. A China shrinking faster and sooner than predicted will have profound implications in coming years for its economy, domestic politics, social life and geopolitical aims. This week's demographic story seems to me to be the most important China story of the week, at least in terms of mid to long term implications.

Apr 30, 2021
at
3:26 PM