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China increasingly looks good compared to other countries, also economically. The IP numbers suggest a relatively rapid recovery, even though services and investment are lagging a bit, and more negative news is ahead from the external side. But I don’t think that this makes China/Xi look bad in comparison.

As to how much stimulus is needed, that of course depends on what growth one is targeting. Assuming that no policy makers believes in 5.5 percent growth anymore, and really the objective is to restore employment, and that real unemployment is closed to 12-15 percent rather than the official 5.9 you would still need a significant boost from the policy side. Currently, announcements already done have added up to something like 4-5 percent of GDP. The minister of finance’s open in People’s daily suggest that a lot more fiscal action is in the pipeline. So it I were to make a bet, the IMF estimate of last month of a structural deficit of 12 percent this year (compared to 6 last year) seems in the ballpark.

May 15, 2020
at
11:04 AM