There's another sector that's possibly going to get caught in the scrap next. That's alumina. It's small in comparison to the other commodities, less than 2 million tons per year, but if China were to restrict this item the same as it has for the bigger commodities, it would create zero problems for China (they are long on refining capacity), but would impact the global market. If China's door closes, Australia would have trouble placing that much alumina into the rest of the world, since ROW is also long on supply. But it could double back on China. A lower international alumina price would weaken the price of primary aluminum. A weaker LME price would open the spread, and China would become a target for aluminum trade into the country. So China would stop Australian alumina, and switch to aluminum, probably from Russia - and Australia.