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Folks, unfortunately, it's a bit early to declare victory over COVID-19 in China or elsewhere; as Joanne says, with the virus not controlled elsewhere, border closures and lockdowns will likely be with us for a number of months. Asymptomatic carriers will make indigenous infection a source of possible resurgence in China. Singapore and Hong Kong are retightening controls after cases have surged again this weekend.

On the economic front, border closure seems likely given how widespread COVID19 is becoming elsewhere. It is a natural corollary to sheltering in place.

On FDI, China was running a modest current account surplus. Net, it doesn't need FDI as a financing source for its imports. Assuming that China can manage the virus ahead of other nations, its investment and imports will rise relative to its saving and exports, pushing the current account into deficit. That will create a demand for foreign financing, either portfolio of direct foreign investment (and/or a depreciation of the yuan).

Will China get the financing? Probably, given that by assumption its economy will be preforming better than others and given the already announced plans of major market index providers to add/increase the weighting of China in stock and bond indices. New FDI, though, is likely to be moribund.

On politicians/governments and the blame game and the conflict over national or political interests and a global virus, this pandemic is bringing out the best and worst in governments and people. The contrast will get starker as the stress on society across various countries mounts. On Saturday Singapore, a model of fighting COVID-19, announced that it would no longer treat non-residents suffering from COVID-19. That is in essence saying that in Singapore should it be faced with rationing healthcare as Italy is today, nationality will weigh heavily on whether patients live or die. That is not a good sign for working collectively again a common enemy.

Mar 22, 2020
at
6:36 AM