Hmmm, yes agree with first scenario mainly. The unwise fraction would likely be vanishingly small this time. The bigger problem would have been those supermarket scenarios... the staff really would no-show and the fights in the aisles would be hyper-violent and I expect martial law would be important for any order. Military distribution of food etc.

If there was a year delay to this hypothetical child-saving vax, the lockdowns would be the thing policed harder. I read evidence they were useless as implemented, but the Chinese-style weld people into their apartments and reduce interactions to 2 or less per day seemed to flatten the curve (I accept we're still in datageddon but there seems some logic in that policy). So if in that scenario some infected zealous family felt they were going to waltz down your street coughing and spitting to prove their point, and this would likely lead to several more kids dying in your vicinity, what do you do?