"Predicting the risk of terrorist action is a gloomy and imprecise business,"

Well, you got that right. Mr. Kristol for one has an ABSOLUTELY TERRIBLE RECORD when it comes to predicting, well, just about anything, but especially terror. I acknowledge that I'm not even trying to be polite here, but Mr. Kristol's record of deliberate misinformation regarding terrorist threats, particularly regarding Iraq, but, really, just about anywhere in the Middle East, scarcely merits the soft soap approach. Maybe Mr. Selber is a "real" expert, but Mr. Kristol has touted so many false ones, that I prefer to err on the side of skepticism on this one.