Point one: The article by David Rennie on the military situation was not bad. The problem with this Economist issue is the cover, editorial, and social media campaign. Typically Chimerica-centric, with little attention to Chinese agency. Whipping up fear only helps the CCP campaign to instil defeatism.

One core fact hard to get across to China experts is that in Taiwanese politics ‘independence’ 台獨 means independence from the *Republic of China* and the cumbersome claims in its constitution. This also showed in this Economist issue.

Since Taiwan has never been part of the PRC but instead functioned as a separate state since 1949 under the formal name ROC, independence or status quo is not about the PRC. It is about the ROC. Tsai Ing-wen is not saying something very new or controversial when she tells the BBC that the ‘Republic of China (Taiwan)’ is already an independent country. The innovation is to add the ‘(Taiwan)’.

The only role Beijing has in this, is that its threats block formal independence and that it threatens annexation. For Taiwanese, who overwhelmingly already consider their polity separate, state or not, formal independence would not be as big a break with the current situation as annexation by China would. It is therefore important not to present ‘independence’ and ‘unification’ as two potential options equidistant from the status quo.

I still support the view that Chinese policy has been to deter ‘independence’ rather than annex it. That said, this is because it believes it has the historical trend on its side. The PLA has been training for attacking Taiwan.

1. The risk of an accident leading to escalation has always been there, but is on the increase. Even if Beijing does not intend to attack Taiwan now, that is always there in the background.

2. In time, Beijing might want to try grey zone tactics to help the historical trend along. This is the biggest risk, also because responding to blockades or economic coercion and such would be much harder for strategic ambiguity to deal with.

3. Eventually, if it feels the historical trend is no longer on its side, Beijing might want to cash in on its military dominance at the right moment. I do not think that intentional invasion is near at the moment, though.